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HIRI’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit, held in Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30, examined economic pressures, customer behavior, AI, project spending and sales channels. HIRI forecast home improvement product market growth of 2.5% in current dollars in 2026, but a 1.5% decline after inflation; speakers also reported contractor confidence of 8.2 out of 10 and growing homeowner use of AI in renovation planning.
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit in Minneapolis brought industry leaders together Sept. 29-30 to discuss how economic conditions, customer behavior and artificial intelligence are shaping the home improvement market. HIRI’s forecast presented at the event projects the market for home improvement products will grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026, while falling 1.5% after inflation.
The summit’s sessions covered five themes: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, project spending, and sales channels. Speakers discussed inflation and affordability alongside the decisions homeowners and professionals make when planning and buying for home improvement projects.
Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the National Association of Home Builders, said the median age of a first-time homebuyer is now 40, compared with 29 in 1981. The summit also featured HIRI’s Dave King, OpenBrand chief economist Ralph McLaughlin and S&P Global director Michael Zdinak discussing how affordability, mortgage rates and income affect homebuyers.
On customer behavior, Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, presented findings from the Q2 2026 Quarterly Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3. The index put professionals’ confidence in securing business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. Houzz senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman shared research indicating that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that households using AI account for 25% of renovation dollars.
Growth Looks Different After Inflation
The figures offer a mixed view of demand. HIRI’s projection of 2.5% growth in current dollars points to a larger market by nominal spending, but the forecast’s 1.5% decline after inflation suggests the purchasing power represented by that spending is expected to contract. The distinction matters for companies making plans around sales, pricing and investment.
The other data points describe pressures and opportunities at different stages of the market. A higher median first-time buyer age is part of the economic picture discussed at the summit, while the contractor confidence score indicates how surveyed professionals viewed their near-term prospects. Houzz’s AI findings suggest the technology is already involved in some renovation planning and spending. They do not, by themselves, show that AI caused projects to proceed or increased spending.
For retailers and manufacturers, the event’s central practical message was to reduce uncertainty for customers. King, citing HIRI’s market report and forecast, urged manufacturers to make customer decisions easier in the coming quarter. That advice reflects the summit’s focus on affordability, trust and the information people use when choosing products or professionals.
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Five Themes Framed the Summit
The Home Improvement Research Institute convened the two-day event for home improvement leaders and professionals to examine industry data. Its agenda linked broad economic indicators with the purchase journey, market research, project spending and distribution channels rather than treating sales as a standalone issue.
Several sessions focused on the role of professionals and recommendations in customer choices. Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House, discussed how the brand maintains relevance by prioritizing education and trust. He described its approach as being accurate and avoiding a transactional tone. These remarks formed part of a broader discussion about how customers assess advice while planning projects.
The event’s data points come from different sources and measure different things: HIRI’s market forecast, a contractor sentiment tracker and index, and Houzz research on AI use. They should not be read as a single measure of market performance. The summit recap reports findings and presentations; it does not provide full survey methods or detailed definitions for every metric.
“Take uncertainty out of the customer’s decision in the coming quarter.”
— Dave King, HIRI
Survey Methods and Outcomes Remain Open
The summit recap does not include the sample sizes, question wording or full methodology behind the contractor confidence index or Houzz’s AI research. It also does not specify how the reported 25% share of renovation dollars was calculated or define the period covered. Readers should treat these figures as reported findings, not as a complete picture of every homeowner or contractor.
HIRI’s market figures are forecasts, not final results. The recap does not detail the assumptions behind the projected growth in current dollars or the inflation-adjusted decline, nor does it break the forecast down by product category or channel. Actual 2026 performance could differ. The summit discussion also does not establish that AI use causes more renovation spending, or show how homeowners’ use of AI changes project outcomes.
Watch the 2026 Forecast Against Results
The next test of the summit’s outlook will be how reported market results compare with HIRI’s 2026 forecast as more data becomes available. Retailers, manufacturers and contractors will also be watching whether affordability, inflation and buyer conditions affect project demand and sales through the coming quarter and into 2027.
Further detail may come from HIRI’s market reports and future contractor sentiment releases, as well as additional research from Houzz and other industry organizations. The summit recap does not announce a specific date for another report or a follow-up event. For now, the stated near-term guidance from King is for manufacturers to focus on reducing uncertainty as customers make purchase decisions.
Key Questions
What was the main news from HIRI’s 2026 summit?
The summit presented discussion and research on economic conditions, customer behavior and AI, alongside HIRI’s forecast for the home improvement products market to grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026 and shrink 1.5% after inflation.
What did HIRI forecast for the 2026 market?
HIRI forecast growth of 2.5% in current dollars and a 1.5% decline after inflation. These are projections, not final reported results.
What did the summit report about AI and renovations?
Houzz’s 2026 research, as presented by Liza Hausman, found that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that households using AI account for 25% of renovation dollars. The recap does not provide the full research methodology or show that AI caused higher spending.
How confident were contractors about future business?
The Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3 2026 put professionals’ confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. The summit recap does not include the index’s detailed methodology.
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